Base-rate neglect as a function of base rates in probabilistic contingency learning.

Kutzner, F., Freytag, P., Vogel, T. & Fiedler, K. (2008). Base-rate neglect as a function of base rates in probabilistic contingency learning. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 90, 23-32.

When humans predict criterion events based on probabilistic predictors, they often lend excessive weight to the predictor and insufficient weight to the base rates of the criterion event. In an operant analysis, using a matching-to-sample paradigm, Goodie and Fantino (1996) showed that humans exhibit base-rate neglect when predictors are associated with criterion events through physical similarity. In partial replications of their studies, we demonstrated similar effects when the predictors resembled the criterion events in terms of similarly skewed base rates. Participants’ predictions were biased toward the more (or less) frequent criterion event following the more (or less) frequent predictor. This finding adds to the growing evidence for pseudocontingencies (Fiedler & Freytag, 2004), a framework that stresses base-rate influences on contingency learning.

Key words: : pseudocontingency, skewed base rates, base-rate fallacy, probabilistic contingency learning, matching to sample, humans, computer keyboard