Larry A. Alferink, Thomas S. Critchfield, Jennifer L. Hitt, & William J. Higgins.
Generality of the matching law as a descriptor of shot selection in basketball.
Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis,
42, 595-608.
Based on a small sample of highly successful teams, past studies suggested
that shot selection (two- vs. three-point field goals) in basketball corresponds
to predictions of the generalized matching law. We examined the generality
of this finding by evaluating shot selection of college (Study 1) and
professional (Study 3) players. The matching law accounted for the
majority of variance in shot selection, with undermatching and a bias
for taking three-point shots. Shot-selection matching varied systematically
for players who (a) were members of successful versus unsuccessful
teams, (b) competed at different levels of collegiate play, and (c) served
as regulars versus substitutes (Study 2). These findings suggest that the
matching law is a robust descriptor of basketball shot selection,
although the mechanism that produces matching is unknown.
DESCRIPTORS: basketball shot selection, choice, matching law